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The Notebook: The QB Market Is Thin, the OL Class Is Deep, and the Combine Hallways Are Telling

Mendoza goes first overall and that part is settled. What happens after him — and what a GM said Thursday evening that stuck with me.

A few things I've been thinking about as the combine wraps up in Indianapolis this week.

The quarterback class is thin. I don't mean thin in the way that draft analysts use as shorthand for "no generational talent at the top." I mean thin in a structural way — there are fewer quarterbacks who can step into a starting role in year one without significant protection around them than there have been in any class I can remember covering over the past decade. That has real implications for roughly a third of the league.

Indiana's Fernando Mendoza will go first overall, and he deserves it. What he did this season — leading his program to a 16-0 championship — required a level of poise under pressure that most quarterbacks don't demonstrate until year three in the NFL. His combine week has been deliberate. He's not trying to win the week; he's trying to confirm what teams already believe. That's the right approach for the top pick. You don't need to audition when the job is already yours.

What happens after Mendoza is where it gets interesting. Teams picking in the back half of the first round who need a quarterback are looking at a market where the gap between Mendoza and the next viable option is substantial. I've talked to people in a couple of front offices this week who are being honest with themselves that they may need to wait a year and address quarterback through free agency or next year's class rather than reach in this draft. That's a more disciplined position than most front offices actually take. We'll see how long it holds once they're on the clock.

The offensive line evaluation at this combine has been quietly excellent. The depth at center and guard — positions teams tend to neglect until the problem is catastrophic — is the best it's been in several years. Teams rebuilding their interiors should be paying very close attention. The interior line market in free agency is expensive and the quality is inconsistent. Getting a center or guard in rounds two or three of this draft who can start in year two is a better outcome than overpaying for a veteran stopgap in March.

I had a brief conversation Thursday evening with a general manager who has been in this league for twenty-three years. He said something that stuck with me: "Everyone comes to the combine looking for the players who will make their roster better. The teams that get it right are the ones who also come looking for the players who will make the locker room harder." That framing matters. Athletic testing tells you a lot. It doesn't tell you that.

The combine ends this weekend. Free agency opens in two weeks. This is the moment when the real work begins — the conversations that don't happen in front of cameras, the medical evaluations that change boards, the decisions that get made on the basis of things no one will write about until September. I've always thought the best part of the combine isn't what you see on the field. It's what happens in the hallways afterward.

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